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Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

LT-LEDS is an integrated and comprehensive planning framework that articulates actionable programs and policies to put Laos on a long-term low-emission development pathway. Initiated in 2008 during the UNFCCC climate negotiations in Copenhagen (COP15), these strategies are voluntary initiatives aimed at shifting national development toward a low-carbon economy while achieving sustainable development goals.

 

Key Features:

  • Aligned with Paris Agreement alongside NDC

  • Long-term focus extending to 2050

  • Comprehensive sector-wide approach

  • Balances development priorities with emission reduction

Understanding LT-LEDS

The Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) represents Lao PDR’s comprehensive roadmap toward a sustainable, low-carbon future. Initiated during the 2008 UNFCCC climate negotiations in Copenhagen (COP15), this strategy aligns our national development goals with global climate action.

What is LT-LEDS?
  • A voluntary national strategy focusing on low-carbon economic development
  • Aligned with the Paris Agreement alongside our NDC commitments
  • Takes a long-term perspective through 2050
  • Balances economic growth with environmental sustainability
  • Tailored to Lao PDR’s unique socio-economic priorities
LT-LEDS vs NDC

While both strategies are anchored in the Paris Agreement, they serve different timeframes:

  • NDC: Medium-term strategy through 2030, updated every five years
  • LT-LEDS: Long-term vision through 2050, providing broader strategic direction

Current Emission Status and Future Projections

Base Year (2019) Emissions

In 2019, our total emissions reached 70 MtCO₂e, distributed across sectors as follows:

  • Forestry: 37%

  • Agriculture: 21%

  • Energy: 20%

  • Industrial: 10%

  • Transportation: 6%

  • Residential and Commercial: 5%

  • Waste: 1%

Growth Projections

Our development trajectory considers both population growth and economic expansion:

These projections form the foundation of our Business as Usual (BAU) scenario planning.

Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario

Under the BAU scenario, our total emissions are projected to reach 111 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (MMtCO₂e) by 2050. This represents a 58% increase from current levels.

Sector-wise Projections

 

Key Sector Highlights:

  • Energy Supply (18.2% of 2050 emissions)

    • Projected emissions: 20.2 MMtCO₂e
    • Main source: Coal power plants for electricity export
    • Domestic demand primarily met through hydropower
    • Includes operation of existing plants (Hongsa and Sepon)
    • Factors in planned installations between 2025-2035

  • Industry (19.7% of 2050 emissions)

    • Projected emissions: 21.9 MMtCO₂e
    • Primary source: Industrial fossil fuel combustion
    • Reflects expected economic growth and industrialization

  • Transportation (13.5% of 2050 emissions)

    • Significant growth projected (235% increase)
    • Driven by vehicle fleet expansion
    • Fossil fuel combustion remains primary source

Priority Actions for Emission Reduction

To achieve our 2050 net-zero target, we’ve identified 37 strategic actions across all economic sectors. These actions fall into two categories:

Category A Actions (71% Reduction)

These actions have reliable data and clear implementation pathways, targeting a reduction of 78.6 MMtCO₂e. Key transformations include:

  • 1

    Electricity Decarbonization

    • Shift to renewable sources (solar and wind)
    • Phase down existing coal plants
    • Strengthen grid systems
    • Enhanced regional power trade planning
  • 2

    End-Use Electrification

    • Replace traditional cookstoves
    • Expand electric vehicle infrastructure
    • Electrify industrial processes
  • 3

    Energy Efficiency

    • Upgrade appliances and buildings
    • Improve industrial processes
    • Reduce peak load
    • Enhance energy affordability

High-Impact Priority Actions

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

  • Negative values indicate net savings
  • Positive values represent net costs
  • Measured in USD per ton of CO₂e reduced
  • Time horizon: 2024-2050
  • Discount rate: 8%

The Path Forward

Our LT-LEDS provides a clear roadmap for achieving Lao PDR’s climate goals while maintaining economic growth. Success depends on:

  • Restored macroeconomic stability
  • Improved education systems
  • Strong international partnerships
  • Continued technological advancement
  • Active participation from all sectors of society